2022 GA Senate Race

2022 GA Senate Race

Summary

Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock won the 2020–2021 special election against incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler to fill the remainder of former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term. (Isakson had resigned at the end of 2019, and Loeffler was appointed by Governor Brian Kemp following Isakson’s resignation.) No candidate in the open election on November 3 received the 50% required by Georgia law to avoid a run-off, a type of election colloquially known as a “jungle primary”[100]—Warnock received just 32.9% of the vote—and so, a run-off election between Warnock and Loeffler was held on January 5, 2021, which Warnock won with 51% of the vote.

Former Republican senator David Perdue, who narrowly lost his race to Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff in 2021,[101] and former U.S. Representative Doug Collins[102] both considered challenging Warnock, but each eventually announced he is not running.[103]

Former NFL player, Georgia native, and Heisman Trophy-winning University of Georgia running back Herschel Walker,[104] who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump,[105] defeated banking executive Latham Saddler[106] and others in the Republican primary.

Source: Wikipedia

OnAir Post: 2022 GA Senate Race

News

In Georgia, 2 Black candidates to compete for Senate seat
Associated Press, Sudhin Thanawala & Jeff AmyMay 28, 2022

Wayne Black was one of the few African Americans in the crowd as about 100 people gathered recently at the Republican Party headquarters near Columbus, Georgia, to hear from U.S. Senate candidate and football legend Herschel Walker.

A member of the Muscogee County Republican Executive Committee, Black said he found a certain promise in Walker’s candidacy, a GOP voice who could appeal to African Americans and others in Georgia who have traditionally voted Democratic.

“They identify with him from the standpoint of the American dream,” Black said. “You can start from nothing and if you work hard, you can achieve the American dream.”

But that optimism ran into headwinds about 100 miles to the north. As she left an Atlanta polling site, Wyvonia Carter said her choice in what might be the most competitive Senate race this year was not particularly complicated.

About

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[64]TossupMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[65]TossupApril 1, 2022
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[66]TossupMarch 1, 2022
Politico[67]TossupApril 1, 2022
RCP[68]TossupFebruary 24, 2022
Fox News[69]TossupMay 12, 2022
538[70]TossupJune 30, 2022

Web Links

Raphael Warnock

Raphael Warnock 1

Raphael Warnock 1Current Position: US Senator
Affiliation: Democrat
Former Position(s): Pastor from 2005 – 2021

Other positions:
Chair, Subcommittee on Commodities, Risk Management, and Trade
Chair, Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection

Featured Quote: 
Tomorrow the kid from the Kayton Homes housing projects gets sworn into the United States Senate. Thank you for trusting me Georgia.

For more information, go to this post.

Herschel Walker

Current Position: Business owner since 2002
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 US Senator

Whether on the football field, in the classroom, at the Olympics, in Mixed Martial Arts, as CEO of multiple businesses, or as spokesman for the Patriot Support Program, Herschel’s work ethic, commitment to excellence, and love for America has inspired millions.

Now, he is tackling his next challenge: winning a seat in the United States Senate.

For more information, go to this post.

Wikipedia

The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock won his first full term in office, defeating Republican former football player Herschel Walker. Under Georgia's two-round system, Warnock was re-elected in a runoff election on December 6 after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote on November 8.[1] Warnock's win was the only statewide victory for Democrats in Georgia in 2022.

Warnock, who won a shortened term to the seat in a 2020–21 special election, was nominated in the May 24 primary for a full term with minimal opposition. Walker, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote. It was the first U.S. Senate election in Georgia history and among five nationwide since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913 in which both major party nominees were Black.[2][3][a]

In the November 8 election, Warnock received 49.4% of the vote and Walker received 48.5%, triggering the December 6 runoff.[4] Warnock defeated Walker by a 2.8% margin in the runoff and became the first African-American from Georgia elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate. Warnock's victory also secured an outright majority for Senate Democrats for the first time since 2015, with a net gain of one seat in the 2022 midterms.[5][6] It was the third-closest Senate election of the 2022 midterms after Nevada and Wisconsin.

Democratic primary

Warnock easily won renomination in the Democratic primary over Tamara Johnson-Shealey, a left-wing activist and businesswoman, who ran a low-profile campaign focused around reparations for slavery.[7][8]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tamara
Johnson-Shealey
Raphael
Warnock
Undecided
Emerson CollegeApril 1–3, 2022453 (LV)± 4.6%6%85%10%

Results

Results by county:
  Warnock
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticRaphael Warnock (incumbent) 702,610 96.04%
DemocraticTamara Johnson-Shealey28,9843.96%
Total votes731,594 100.0%

Republican primary

Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black was the runner-up in the Republican primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Debates

2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia debates
No.DateOrganizerLocationKey:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Source
Gary BlackJosh ClarkKelvin KingJonathan McColumnLatham SaddlerHerschel Walker
1April 9, 2022Georgia's 9th congressional district Republican PartyGainesvillePPPPPA[51]
2May 3, 2022Atlanta Press Club,
Georgia Public Broadcasting
AtlantaPPPPPA[52]

Endorsements

Gary Black
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Herschel Walker
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
  • American Conservative Union[64]
  • Black America's Political Action Committee[65]
  • National Right to Life[66]

Polling

Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Gary
Black
Josh
Clark
Kelvin
King
Jonathan
McColumn
Latham
Saddler
Herschel
Walker
Other
[c]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsMay 12–23, 2022May 24, 20229.0%2.7%4.0%1.7%9.0%64.7%12.9%Walker +55.7
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Gary
Black
Josh
Clark
Kelvin
King
Jonathan
McColumn
Latham
Saddler
Herschel
Walker
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)May 21–23, 20221,074 (LV)± 2.9%10%3%4%2%10%67%4%
Landmark Communications (R)May 22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%9%3%5%2%12%60%9%
Fox NewsMay 12–16, 20221,004 (LV)± 3.0%8%2%3%1%5%66%1%11%
ARW Strategies (R)April 30 – May 1, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%10%1%3%1%4%59%23%
SurveyUSAApril 22–27, 2022559 (LV)± 4.8%6%3%2%2%3%62%21%
University of GeorgiaApril 10–22, 2022886 (LV)± 3.3%7%1%1%1%2%66%23%
Landmark Communications (R)April 9–10, 2022660 (LV)± 3.8%9%3%4%0%5%64%14%
Spry Strategies (R)April 6–10, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%7%2%4%2%64%21%
University of GeorgiaMarch 20 – April 8, 2022~329 (LV)± 5.4%8%0%2%0%2%64%24%
Emerson CollegeApril 1–3, 2022509 (LV)± 4.3%13%4%5%3%2%57%2%[d]16%
Fox NewsMarch 2–6, 2022914 (LV)± 3.0%8%1%3%2%66%1%16%
InsiderAdvantage (R)February 28 – March 1, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%6%3%4%3%63%2%20%
The Trafalgar Group (R)February 11–13, 20221,072 (LV)± 3.0%6%2%3%70%19%
Quinnipiac UniversityJanuary 19–24, 2022666 (LV)± 3.8%6%0%2%1%81%0%[e]9%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[A]October 11–14, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%6%1%1%74%2%[f]16%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 2–4, 20211,078 (LV)± 3.0%6%2%3%76%13%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[B]August 11–12, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%5%2%1%54%3%[g]35%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins
Marjorie
Taylor Greene
Kelly
Loeffler
Herschel
Walker
Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R)March 14–15, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%35%7%22%27%11%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantageMarch 7–9, 2021– (LV)[h]33%24%33%11%
Primary runoff polling
Doug Collins vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins
Kelly
Loeffler
Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R)March 14–15, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%55%36%10%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantageMarch 7–9, 2021– (LV)[h]52%32%16%
Herschel Walker vs. Doug Collins
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Herschel
Walker
Doug
Collins
Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantageMarch 7–9, 2021– (LV)[h]50%36%14%
Herschel Walker vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Herschel
Walker
Kelly
Loeffler
Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantageMarch 7–9, 2021– (LV)[h]62%26%11%

Results

Results by county:
  Walker
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanHerschel Walker 803,560 68.18%
RepublicanGary Black157,37013.35%
RepublicanLatham Saddler104,4718.86%
RepublicanJosh Clark46,6933.96%
RepublicanKelvin King37,9303.22%
RepublicanJonathan McColumn28,6012.43%
Total votes1,178,625 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[70]TossupMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[71]TossupApril 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72]Lean R (flip)November 7, 2022
Politico[73]TossupApril 1, 2022
RCP[74]TossupFebruary 24, 2022
Fox News[75]TossupOctober 25, 2022
DDHQ[76]TossupOctober 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[77]Lean R (flip)November 7, 2022
The Economist[78]TossupNovember 1, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Georgia debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublicanLibertarian
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited W  Withdrawn
Raphael WarnockHerschel WalkerChase Oliver
1Oct. 14, 2022Nexstar Media GroupBuck Lanford
Tina Tyus-Shaw
PPN
2Oct. 16, 2022Georgia Public BroadcastingScott Slade[79]PAP

Endorsements

Raphael Warnock (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Herschel Walker (R)
Executive Branch officials
State officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Herschel
Walker (R)
Other
[c]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 29 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202247.4%48.8%3.8%Walker +1.4
FiveThirtyEightOctober 13 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202246.7%47.7%5.69%Walker +1.0
270ToWinNovember 4–7, 2022November 7, 202247.3%48.5%5.1%Walker +1.2
Average47.1%48.3%4.6%Walker +1.2
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Herschel
Walker (R)
Chase
Oliver (L)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelNovember 5–7, 2022791 (LV)± 3.0%46%49%5%[i]
Landmark CommunicationsNovember 4–7, 20221,214 (LV)± 2.8%46%47%5%2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)November 6, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%47%49%1%4%
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%1%5%
The Trafalgar Group (R)November 4–6, 20221,103 (LV)± 2.9%47%50%2%2%
Data for Progress (D)November 2–6, 20221,474 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%
Targoz Market ResearchNovember 2–6, 2022579 (LV)± 4.0%47%49%1%2%[j]
East Carolina UniversityNovember 2–5, 20221,077 (LV)± 3.5%49%49%2%
Amber Integrated (R)November 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%45%48%3%4%
Remington Research Group (R)November 1–2, 20221,150 (LV)± 2.8%45%49%2%4%
Echleon InsightsOctober 31 – November 2, 2022500 (LV)± 5.4%45%49%3%3%
45%52%3%
Marist CollegeOctober 31 – November 2, 20221,168 (RV)± 3.9%49%45%1%[k]6%
1,009 (LV)± 4.2%48%48%1%[k]3%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]October 29 – November 2, 2022800 (LV)± 3.0%44%49%2%5%
SurveyUSAOctober 29 – November 2, 20221,171 (LV)± 3.7%49%43%3%5%
Patinkin Research Strategies (D)[D]October 30 – November 1, 2022700 (RV)± 3.7%49%45%4%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 28–31, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%1%1%[l]2%
50%48%2%1%[l]
Fox NewsOctober 26–30, 20221,002 (RV)± 3.0%44%43%6%[m]6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)October 27, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%45%48%2%<1%[n]5%
Siena College/NYTOctober 24–27, 2022604 (LV)± 4.8%49%46%1%4%
University of GeorgiaOctober 16–27, 20221,022 (LV)± 3.1%45%46%5%5%
co/efficient (R)October 24–25, 2022946 (LV)± 3.2%44%47%3%6%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]October 22–25, 2022800 (LV)± 3.0%42%46%3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)October 23–24, 20221,053 (LV)± 3.0%43%48%4%[o]4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[E]October 21–23, 20221,076 (LV)± 2.9%47%49%5%
East Carolina UniversityOctober 13–18, 2022905 (LV)± 3.8%49%47%2%[p]3%
Landmark CommunicationsOctober 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%46%46%3%2%
Data for Progress (D)October 13–17, 2022984 (LV)± 3.0%48%47%3%3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)October 16, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%46%43%4%1%[q]6%
Wick Insights (R)October 8–14, 20221,018 (LV)± 3.1%46%46%3%[r]5%
CiviqsOctober 8–11, 2022717 (LV)± 4.6%49%46%3%[r]1%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]October 8–11, 2022800 (LV)± 3.0%44%46%4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 8–11, 20221,084 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%4%5%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 7–10, 20221,157 (LV)± 2.9%52%45%1%[s]1%
Emerson CollegeOctober 6–7, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%1%1%[l]4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)October 4, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%47%44%3%1%[q]5%
SurveyUSASeptember 30 – October 4, 20221,076 (LV)± 3.7%50%38%5%[t]7%
University of GeorgiaSeptember 25 – October 4, 20221,030 (LV)± 3.1%46%43%4%6%
Fox NewsSeptember 22–26, 20221,011 (RV)± 3.0%46%41%6%[u]7%
Data for Progress (D)September 16–20, 20221,006 (RV)± 3.0%46%46%4%3%
YouGov/CBS NewsSeptember 14–19, 20221,178 (RV)± 4.0%51%49%0%
University of GeorgiaSeptember 5–16, 2022861 (LV)± 3.3%44%46%3%7%
Marist CollegeSeptember 12–15, 20221,202 (RV)± 3.6%47%42%4%7%
992 (LV)± 4.0%47%45%4%4%
Kurt Jetta (D)[F]September 9–12, 2022949 (RV)± 3.5%50%37%13%
542 (LV)49%45%7%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 8–12, 20221,278 (LV)± 2.7%52%46%1%2%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022751 (LV)± 4.4%50%40%10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)September 6–7, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%44%47%4%5%
Emerson CollegeAugust 28–29, 2022600 (LV)± 3.9%44%46%4%7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)August 24–27, 20221,079 (LV)± 2.9%47%48%3%3%
Phillips AcademyAugust 3–7, 2022971 (RV)± 3.1%44%45%11%
Research Affiliates (D)[G]July 26 – August 1, 2022420 (LV)± 4.8%49%46%5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)July 26–27, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%48%45%3%1%3%
Fox NewsJuly 22–26, 2022908 (RV)± 3.0%46%42%1%9%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[H]July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%42%46%3%9%
SurveyUSAJuly 21–24, 2022604 (LV)± 5.3%48%39%5%8%
University of GeorgiaJuly 14–22, 2022902 (LV)± 3.3%46%43%3%8%
Beacon Research (D)[I]July 5–20, 20221,003 (RV)± 3.1%48%36%2%11%
602 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%1%7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)July 5–11, 20221,197 (LV)± 4.4%50%47%3%
Data for Progress (D)July 1–6, 20221,131 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%
Change Research (D)[J]June 24–27, 2022704 (LV)± 3.7%48%44%8%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 23–27, 20221,497 (RV)± 2.5%54%44%0%3%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]June 11–16, 2022800 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%6%
East Carolina UniversityJune 6–9, 2022868 (RV)± 3.9%47%47%2%4%
SurveyUSAApril 22–27, 20221,278 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%5%
Grassroots Targeting (R)[A]April 3–16, 20222,500 (RV)± 2.0%41%51%8%
Emerson CollegeApril 1–3, 20221,013 (RV)± 3.0%45%49%6%
Blueprint Polling (D)March 2–8, 2022662 (LV)± 3.9%45%49%6%
Change Research (D)[J]March 2022– (LV)48%49%3%
Wick Insights (R) Archived March 1, 2022, at the Wayback MachineFebruary 2–6, 20221,290 (LV)± 2.7%46%47%8%
Quinnipiac UniversityJanuary 19–24, 20221,702 (RV)± 2.4%48%49%0%3%
University of GeorgiaJanuary 13–24, 2022872 (RV)± 3.3%44%47%1%8%
NRSC (R)[K]December 4–8, 2021831 (LV)± 3.4%48%49%3%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021753 (RV)± 3.6%45%39%2%8%
733 (LV)48%42%2%6%
Public Policy Polling (D)August 4–5, 2021622 (V)± 3.9%48%46%6%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R)March 7–9, 20211,093 (LV)± 2.9%46%48%3%4%
Hypothetical polling
Raphael Warnock vs. Gary Black
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Gary
Black (R)
OtherUndecided
University of GeorgiaJanuary 13–24, 2022872 (RV)± 3.3%46%41%1%11%
Public Policy Polling (D)August 4–5, 2021622 (V)± 3.9%46%38%16%
Raphael Warnock vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D)August 4–5, 2021622 (V)± 3.9%47%44%9%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R)March 7–9, 20211,093 (LV)± 2.9%46%41%8%5%
Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Doug
Collins (R)
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R)March 7–9, 20211,093 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%5%5%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Grassroots Targeting (R)[A]April 3–16, 20222,500 (RV)± 2.0%40%52%8%

Results

Despite a strong gubernatorial performance by incumbent governor Brian Kemp in his reelection bid, and leading the polls since October, Walker ended up one point behind Warnock and was forced into a runoff. Ticket splitting was evident, as Walker underperformed Brian Kemp by 203,130 votes, while Warnock did 132,444 votes better than Abrams.[142]

2022 United States Senate election in Georgia[143]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticRaphael Warnock (incumbent) 1,946,117 49.44% +1.05%
RepublicanHerschel Walker 1,908,442 48.49% −0.88%
LibertarianChase Oliver81,3652.07%+1.35%
Total votes3,935,924 100.0%

Runoff

Following the projection of incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada, it became clear that, unlike in the previous cycle, the results of the Georgia runoff would not determine control of the United States Senate. With all Democratic incumbents besides Warnock winning re-election and Democrat John Fetterman flipping an open seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey, Democrats held their majority in the Senate.[v][144] Nevertheless, national Democrats and Republicans began spending on advertising and volunteer mobilization efforts as soon as it became apparent that a runoff election would be necessary.[145] Historically, runoff elections in Georgia have favored Republicans as turnout decreased disproportionately amongst Democratic voters, but in 2021, with Senate control to be determined, turnout was historically high.[146] Prior to the runoff, elections analysts questioned whether Georgia voters would turn out in such high numbers again and tried to determine which candidate's coalition of supporters would be more likely to turn out.[147] This was the fifth runoff in the state's history.

The early vote window was shorter in 2022 than in 2021 due to Georgia's Election Integrity Act of 2021, which reduced the gap between general and runoff elections from nine to four weeks.[148] State officials also said that there could be no weekend early voting: Georgia state law bars early voting from taking place the Saturday immediately before an election (December 3), and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued that early voting also could not take place the next preceding Saturday (November 26), as it fell two days after Thanksgiving (November 24) and the day after a Georgia state holiday established to commemorate Confederate general Robert E. Lee's birthday (November 25).[w][151] On Friday, November 18, a Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled that, despite the holidays, county boards of election could legally offer early voting on Saturday, November 26;[152] that decision was upheld by the Georgia Court of Appeals on Monday, November 21,[153] and by the Supreme Court of Georgia on Wednesday, November 23.[154] Ultimately, 27 of Georgia's 159 counties chose to offer early voting on Saturday,[155] including the state's four largest counties, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb.[156]

While Democrats retained control of the Senate during the 118th Congress regardless of the outcome of the Georgia runoff, Warnock's victory affected the functioning of that majority. During the 117th Congress, Senate Democrats made power-sharing agreements with Republicans, such as evenly dividing committee memberships between the two parties and giving Republicans greater ability to delay judicial appointments; with Warnock's win, Democrats attained an outright 51–49 majority,[1] allowing them to take full control of Senate committees and expedite judicial confirmations.[157] Looking beyond the 118th Congress, many analysts have noted that the outcome of this race will affect Democrats' prospects in the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. Election forecasters have noted that Democrats hold a number of seats up for election in 2024 which will be difficult for the party to defend,[x] and therefore that holding Georgia's seat bolstered the party's chances to maintain Senate control going forward.[157][158][159]

According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Warnock won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Walker's defeat.[160]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[161]TossupNovember 18, 2022
Inside Elections[162]Tilt DDecember 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[163]Lean DDecember 5, 2022
DDHQ[164]Lean DDecember 6, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Herschel
Walker (R)
Undecided
[c]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 11 – December 4, 2022December 5, 202251.0%47.3%1.5%Warnock +3.7
FiveThirtyEightNovember 26 – December 5, 2022December 5, 202251.1%47.2%2.1%Warnock +3.9
270ToWinNovember 22 – December 5, 2022December 5, 202251.0%47.7%1.5%Warnock +3.3
Average51.0%47.4%1.7%Warnock +3.6
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Herschel
Walker (R)
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)December 3–5, 20221,099 (LV)± 2.9%51%47%2%
Data for Progress (D)December 1–5, 20221,229 (LV)± 3.0%51%49%
InsiderAdvantage (R)December 4, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%51%48%1%
Landmark CommunicationsDecember 4, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%52%47%1%
Mitchell ResearchDecember 4, 2022625 (LV)± 3.6%50%45%5%
Patriot PollingNovember 30 – December 2, 2022818 (RV)49%47%4%
Emerson CollegeNovember 28–30, 2022888 (LV)± 3.2%51%49%
49%47%4%
SurveyUSANovember 26–30, 20221,214 (LV)± 3.6%50%47%3%
50%46%4%
CNN/SSRSNovember 25–29, 20221,886 (RV)± 3.0%51%44%5%[y]
1,184 (LV)± 3.8%52%48%1%[z]
UMass Lowell/YouGovNovember 18–28, 20221,300 (LV)± 3.2%51%46%2%
Phillips AcademyNovember 26–27, 2022862 (LV)± 3.3%47%48%5%
Frederick Polls (D)[L]November 23–26, 2022939 (LV)± 3.1%50%50%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)November 11–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%51%47%2%

Results

Warnock won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election, although he did win them in 2020.

2022 United States Senate runoff election in Georgia[165]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticRaphael Warnock (incumbent) 1,820,633 51.40% +0.36%
RepublicanHerschel Walker1,721,24448.60%−0.36%
Total votes3,541,877 100.0%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[166]

DistrictWarnockWalkerRepresentative
1st44%56%Buddy Carter
2nd56%44%Sanford Bishop
3rd36%64%Drew Ferguson
4th82%18%Hank Johnson
5th87%13%Nikema Williams
6th44%56%Lucy McBath (117th Congress)
Rich McCormick (118th Congress)
7th66%34%Carolyn Bourdeaux (117th Congress)
Lucy McBath (118th Congress)
8th35%65%Austin Scott
9th31%69%Andrew Clyde
10th39%61%Jody Hice (117th Congress)
Mike Collins (118th Congress)
11th43%57%Barry Loudermilk
12th44%56%Rick Allen
13th84%16%David Scott
14th32%68%Marjorie Taylor Greene

See also

Notes

  1. ^ After Illinois in 2004 and South Carolina in 2014 and 2016, and concurrently with South Carolina in 2022.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ Nestor with 2%
  5. ^ Craig and Nestor with 0%
  6. ^ Craig and Nestor with 1%
  7. ^ Carter with 3%
  8. ^ a b c d Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
  9. ^ "Other candidate/Don't know" with 5%
  10. ^ "All others" with 2%
  11. ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  14. ^ "Other" with <1%
  15. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
  16. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. ^ a b "Other" with 1%
  18. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
  19. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  20. ^ "Other candidate" with 5%
  21. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
  22. ^ Two independent senators caucus with Senate Democrats and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote.
  23. ^ While Lee's birthday was January 19, the state of Georgia had traditionally observed the holiday on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Since 2016, Georgia no longer references Lee on its official calendar, but the day is still observed as a state holiday and government operations are closed.[149][150]
  24. ^ Three Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Trump in 2020 (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia), while no Class 1 Republicans represent states won by Biden. In addition, five Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Biden by less than his national popular vote margin (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
  25. ^ "Do not plan to vote" with 5%
  26. ^ "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 34N22 Leadership, which supports Walker
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Save America PAC
  3. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Progress Georgia, an organization affiliated with the Georgia Democratic Party.
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Walker
  7. ^ This poll was sponsored by Charlie Bailey's campaign for lieutenant governor
  8. ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  9. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  10. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America's Future Majority Fund
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  12. ^ Poll conducted for COMPETE Everywhere, a digital marketing firm associated with the Democratic Party.

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